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Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are often generated from preexisting “seed” vortices. Seeds with higher persistence might have a higher chance to undergo TC genesis. What controls seed persistence remains unclear. This study proposes that planetary Rossby wave drag is a key factor that affects seed persistence. Using recently developed theory for the response of a vortex to the planetary vorticity gradient, a new parameter given by the ratio of the maximum wind speed (V_max) to the Rhines speed at the radius of maximum wind (R_max), here termed “vortex structural compactness” (C_υ), is introduced to characterize the vortex weakening by planetary Rossby wave drag. The relationship between vortex compactness and weakening rate is tested via barotropicβ-plane experiments. The vortex’s initialC_υis varied by systematically varying their initialV_maxandR_maxin idealized wind profile models. Experiments are also conducted with real-world seed vortices from reanalysis data, which possess natural compactness variability. The weakening rate depends strongly on the vortex’s initialC_υacross both idealized and real-world experiments, and the initial axis-asymmetry introduces minor differences. Experiments doubling the size of seed vortices cause them to weaken more rapidly, in line with other experiment sets. The dependence of the weakening rate on initial compactness can be predicted from a simple theory, which is more robust for more compact vortices. Our results suggest that a seed’s structure strongly modulates how long it can persist in the presence of a planetary vorticity gradient. Connections to real seeds on Earth are discussed. Significance StatementThis study explores the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) seeds, which are preexisting weakly rotating rainstorms, in a simple setting that isolates the dynamical effects of the rotating sphere. It is not clear why some seeds can persist for a longer duration and might have a higher chance to eventually undergo genesis. We proposed that a factor called “planetary Rossby wave drag” plays a crucial role in this process. To investigate this, we introduce a new parameter called “compactness” to describe how the size and intensity of a seed vortex determines how quickly it will weaken due to this drag. We conducted experiments with numerical simulations and real-world TC seeds to test our ideas. Our findings show that the initial compactness of seeds strongly influences how quickly they weaken. We have developed a formula to predict how quickly these seeds weaken based on their compactness, which is especially accurate for more compact seeds. This research helps us understand how planetary Rossby wave drag affects the persistence of a TC seed and, ultimately, how it might impact the frequency of TCs. 

Abstract Genesis potential indices (GPIs) are widely used to understand the climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the sign of projected future changes depends on how they incorporate environmental moisture. Recent theory combines potential intensity and midtropospheric moisture into a single quantity called the ventilated potential intensity, which removes this ambiguity. This work proposes a new GPI (GPI_υ) that is proportional to the product of the ventilated potential intensity and the absolute vorticity raised to a power. This power is estimated to be approximately 5 by fitting observed tropical cyclone best track and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data. Fitting the model with separate exponents yields nearly identical values, indicating that their product likely constitutes a single joint parameter. Likewise, results are nearly identical for a Poisson model as for the power law. GPI_υperforms comparably well to existing indices in reproducing the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone genesis and its covariability with El Niño–Southern Oscillation, while only requiring a single fitting exponent. When applied to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) projections, GPI_υpredicts that environments globally will become gradually more favorable for TC genesis with warming, consistent with prior work based on the normalized entropy deficit, though significant changes emerge only at higher latitudes under relatively strong warming. The GPI_υhelps resolve the debate over the treatment of the moisture term and its implication for changes in TC genesis favorability with warming, and its clearer physical interpretation may offer a step forward toward a theory for genesis across climate states. Significance StatementTropical cyclones cause significant human impacts globally, yet we currently do not understand what controls the number of storms that form each year. Tropical cyclone formation depends on fine-scale processes that our climate models cannot capture. Thus, it is common to use parameters from the background environment to represent regions favorable for cyclone formation. However, there are a variety of formulations because the link between environment and cyclone formation is complicated. This work proposes a new method that unifies a few common formulations, which helps resolve a divergence in current explanations of how tropical cyclone formation may change under climate change. 

Abstract Minimum central pressure (P_min) is an integrated measure of the tropical cyclone wind field and is known to be a useful indicator of storm damage potential. A simple model that predictsP_minfrom routinely estimated quantities, including storm size, would be of great value. Here, we present a simple linear empirical model for predictingP_minfrom maximum wind speed, a radius of 34-kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s⁻¹) winds (R_34kt), storm center latitude, and the environmental pressure. An empirical model for the pressure deficit is first developed that takes as predictors specific combinations of these quantities that are derived directly from theory based on gradient wind balance and a modified Rankine-type wind profile known to capture storm structure inside ofR_34kt. Model coefficients are estimated using data from the southwestern North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2004 to 2022 using aircraft-based estimates ofP_min, extended best track data, and estimates of environmental pressure from Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses. The model has a near-zero conditional bias even for lowP_min, explaining 94.2% of the variance. Performance is superior to a variety of other model formulations, including a standard wind–pressure model that does not account for storm size or latitude (89.2% variance explained). Model performance is also strong when applied to high-latitude data and data near coastlines. Finally, the model is shown to perform comparably well in an operation-like setting based solely on routinely estimated variables, including the pressure of the outermost closed isobar. Case study applications to five impactful historical storms are discussed. Overall, the model offers a simple, fast, physically based prediction forP_minfor practical use in operations and research. Significance StatementSea level pressure is lowest at the center of a hurricane and is routinely estimated in operational forecasting along with the maximum wind speed. While the latter is currently used to define hurricane intensity, the minimum pressure is also a viable measure of storm intensity that is known to better represent damage risk. A simple empirical model that predicts the minimum pressure from maximum wind speed and size, and based on the physics of the hurricane wind field, does not currently exist. This work develops such a model by using wind field physics to determine the important parameters and then uses a simple statistical model to make the final prediction. This model is quick and easy to use in weather forecasting and risk assessment applications. 

Abstract This study investigates how entrainment’s diluting effect on cumulonimbus updraft buoyancy is affected by the temperature of the troposphere, which is expected to increase by the end of the century. A parcel model framework is constructed that allows for independent variations in the temperature (T), the entrainment rateε, the free-tropospheric relative humidity (RH), and the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using this framework, dilution of buoyancy is evaluated withTand RH independently varied and with CAPE either held constant or increased with temperature. When CAPE is held constant, buoyancy decreases asTincreases, with parcels in warmer environments realizing substantially smaller fractions of their CAPE as kinetic energy (KE). This occurs because the increased moisture difference between an updraft and its surroundings at warmer temperatures drives greater updraft dilution. Similar results are found in midlatitude and tropical conditions when CAPE is increased with temperature. With the expected 6%–7% increase in CAPE per kelvin of warming, KE only increases at 2%–4% K⁻¹in narrow updrafts but tracks more closely with CAPE at 4%–6% in wider updrafts. Interestingly, the rate of increase in the KE withTbecomes larger than that of CAPE when the later quantity increases at more than 10% K⁻¹. These findings emphasize the importance of considering entrainment in studies of moist convection’s response to climate change, as the entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy may partially counteract the influence of increases in CAPE on updraft intensity. Significance StatementCumulonimbus clouds mix air with their surrounding environment through a process called entrainment, which controls how efficiently environmental energy is converted into upward speed in thunderstorm updrafts. Our research shows that warmer temperatures will exacerbate the moisture difference between cumulonimbus updrafts and their surroundings, leading to greater mixing and less efficient conversion of environmental energy into updraft speeds. This effect should be considered in future research that investigates how climate change will affect cumulonimbus clouds. 

Abstract Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on thefplane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone outer-size expansion on thefplane is proposed. Conceptually, the storm expands because the imbalance between latent heating and radiative cooling drives a lateral inflow that imports absolute vorticity. Volume-integrated latent heating increases more slowly with size than radiative cooling, and hence, the storm expands toward an equilibrium size. The predicted expansion rate is given by the ratio of the difference in size from its equilibrium valuer_t,eqto an environmentally determined time scaleτ_rtof 10–15 days. The model is fully predictive if given a constantr_t,eq, which can also be estimated environmentally. The model successfully captures the first-order size evolution across a range of numerical simulation experiments in which the potential intensity andfare varied. The model predictions of the dependencies of lateral inflow velocity and expansion rate on latent heating rate are also compared well with numerical simulations. This model provides a useful foundation for understanding storm size dynamics in nature. 

Abstract Zonal extensions of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) strongly modulate extreme rainfall activity and tropical cyclone (TC) landfall over the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. These zonal extensions are primarily forced on seasonal timescales by inter‐basin zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. However, despite the presence of large‐scale zonal SST gradients, the WPSH response to SSTs varies from year to year. In this study, we force the atmosphere‐only NCAR Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations with two real‐world SST patterns, both featuring the large‐scale zonal SST gradient characteristic of decaying El Niño‐developing La Niña summers. For each of these patterns, we performed four experimental sets that tested the relative contributions of the tropical Indian Ocean, Pacific, and Atlantic basin SSTs to simulated westward extensions over the WNP during June–August. Our results indicate that the subtle differences between the two SST anomaly patterns belie two different mechanisms forcing the WPSH's westward extensions. In one SST anomaly pattern, extratropical North Pacific SST forcing suppresses the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient forcing, resulting in tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean SSTs being the dominant driver. The second SST anomaly pattern drives a similar westward extension as the first pattern, but the underlying SST gradient driving the WPSH points to intra‐basin forcing mechanisms originating in the Pacific. The results of this study have implications for understanding and predicting the impact of the WPSH's zonal variability on tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall over the WNP. 

Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a “tornado alley” at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America. 

Abstract Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth’s tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provide energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth has led to the development of environmental favorability metrics that predict the strength of potential storms from the local background climate state. Simulations of the gamut of transiting terrestrial exoplanets orbiting late-type stars may offer a test of this Earth-based understanding of tropical cyclogenesis. Previous work has demonstrated that tropical cyclones are likely to form on tidally locked terrestrial exoplanets with intermediate rotation periods of ∼8–10 days. In this study, we test these expectations using ExoCAM simulations with both a sufficient horizontal resolution of 0.°47 × 0.°63 required to permit tropical cyclogenesis along with a thermodynamically active slab ocean. We conduct simulations of tidally locked and ocean-covered Earth-sized planets orbiting late-type M dwarf stars with varying rotation periods from 4–16 days in order to cross the predicted maximum in tropical cyclogenesis. We track tropical cyclones that form in each simulation and assess their location of maximum wind, evolution, and maximum wind speeds. We compare the resulting tropical cyclone locations and strengths to predictions based on environmental favorability metrics, finding good agreement between Earth-based metrics and our simulated storms with a local maximum in both tropical cyclone frequency and intensity at a rotation period of 8 days. Our results suggest that environmental favorability metrics used for tropical cyclones on Earth may also be applicable to temperate tidally locked Earth-sized rocky exoplanets with abundant surface liquid water. 

Abstract Potential temperature and static energy are both useful quantities for understanding our atmosphere, yet static energy receives much less attention in weather science relative to climate science. Bridging this conceptual gap is important, as there is a pressing need for our communities to work together to understand and predict changing weather patterns in a warming world. Here we provide evidence for this gap in usage in American Meteorological Society journal publications and in introductory textbooks. We then describe key benefits of static energy for explaining basic concepts in atmospheric science. We encourage scientists and educators unfamiliar with static energy to familiarize themselves with the concept and consider incorporating it into their science and teaching. 

Abstract The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was above normal, producing 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and seasonal accumulated cyclone energy that exceeded the 1991–2020 average. Hurricane Idalia was the most damaging hurricane of the year, making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in Florida, resulting in eight direct fatalities and 3.6 billion U.S. dollars in damage. The above-normal 2023 hurricane season occurred during a strong El Niño event. El Niño events tend to be associated with increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, yet vertical wind shear during the peak hurricane season months of August–October was well below normal. The primary driver of the above-normal season was likely record warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which effectively counteracted some of the canonical impacts of El Niño. The extremely warm tropical Atlantic and Caribbean were associated with weaker-than-normal trade winds driven by an anomalously weak subtropical ridge, resulting in a positive wind–evaporation–SST feedback. We tested atmospheric circulation sensitivity to SSTs in both the tropical and subtropical Pacific and the Atlantic using the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model, version 2.3. We found that the extremely warm Atlantic was the primary driver of the reduced vertical wind shear relative to other moderate/strong El Niño events. The concentrated warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific in August–October may have contributed to increased levels of vertical wind shear than if the warming had been more evenly spread across the eastern and central tropical Pacific.